A design strategy rooted in uncertainties for charting briefs and developments in Parkstad.

Some regions and places in the Netherlands show signs of population shrinkage. Indeed, regional demographic forecasts indicate that this decline will continue in the foreseeable future and spread to other regions. In this forecast we can distinguish three areas that will be affected in a big way: Zeeuws-Vlaanderen in the far south-west, Oost-Groningen in the far north-east and Zuid-Limburg/Parkstad in the far south-east. This last-named region in particular can expect a considerable decline in both population and number of households. Accordingly, it takes centre stage in this final-year project.
The forecast of shrinkage can easily lead to feelings of fear, doom and panic. We are all familiar with the images from foreign regions faced with a steep population decline: rows of boarded- up houses, abandoned shops, deserted industrial estates, dilapidated offices, neglected public open space and desolate urban areas. The North East of England where the collieries used to be, the 'Rust Belt' of old industrial areas in the north-eastern USA and former East Germany are just three examples of regions where the prime movers of economy have fallen away and the population has left in droves.
The question then emerges of what the spatial planning interventions prompted by this shrinkage could or should be. Here it should be said that if the cause of population decline is almost never planning-related, the results most often are. This brings us immediately to the problem facing urban designers. Planning solutions for places affected by shrinkage are by and large aimed at tackling the symptoms. Either the problem is lifted into the future or interventions are made that may be regretted later. Shrinkage calls for another response from urban designers than that required by growth.
Before developing a design strategy, this project took stock of a a whole raft of uncertainties related to population shrinkage and reduced these to the two principal ones. From these two uncertainties came four spatial planning scenarios with a strong socio-economic charge. These scenarios were then literally superimposed to bring out the differences and similarities between them. Taking account of their similarities, a planning framework was made for the coming ten years. This framework would support interventions - 'no regrets' - to be carried out in all four scenarios without the applicability of any one of these being negatively affected. These in turn presents urban designers and architects as well as policymakers, administrators and housing corporations with a frame of reference when looking for solutions for particular problems. By analysing trends, policy, ongoing processes and feasibility, the project looks ahead to the medium- and long-term situation.

Place of education: AvB Rotterdam | Specialization: urban design | Tutors: Agnes Franzen, Steven Slabbers, Juliëtte van der Meijden, Chris van Langen, Jeroen de Willigen